Non-Violent Stuggle: We Need a Credible Plan
This is not an academic exercise of labeling regime types. If we agree that EPRDF is now a full-scale authoritarian regime, its implication is that EPRDF is now able to reduce elections and democratic institutions to a “mere façade”. As the electoral route is shut down completely, people who advocate non-violent struggle (a group that includes me) have to come up with a credible strategic plan which doesn’t have electoral competition as its core. Otherwise, we will be old news soon.
For many years, political scientist Steven Levitsky has studied regimes he called “competitive authoritarianisms”. He distinguished these regimes from democracy on the one hand and full-scale authoritarianism on the other. Some of what he has said about them:
Competitive authoritarian regimes are civilian regimes in which formal
democratic institutions are widely viewed as the primary means of gaining power, but in
which fraud, civil liberties violations, and abuse of state and media resources so skew the
playing field that the regime cannot be labeled democratic. Such regimes are
competitive, in that democratic institutions are not a façade: opposition forces can use
legal channels to seriously contest for (and occasionally win) power; but they are
authoritarian in that opposition forces are handicapped by a highly uneven—and even
dangerous—playing field. Competition is thus real but unfair.
……………………….
If competitive authoritarian regimes fall short of democracy, they also fall short of full-scale authoritarianism. Although incumbents in competitive authoritarian regimes may routinely manipulate formal democratic rules, they are unable to eliminate them or reduce them to a mere façade. Rather than openly violating democratic rules (for example, by banning or repressing the opposition and the media), incumbents are more likely to use bribery, co-optation, and more subtle forms of persecution, such as the use of tax authorities, compliant judiciaries, and other state agencies to “legally” harass, persecute, or extort cooperative behavior from critics. Yet even if the cards are stacked in favor of autocratic incumbents, the persistence of meaningful democratic institutions creates arenas through which opposition forces may—and frequently do—pose significant challenges. As a result, even though democratic institutions may be badly flawed, both authoritarian incumbents and their opponents must take them seriously.
In this sense, competitive authoritarianism is distinct from what might be called “façade” electoral regimes—that is, regimes in which electoral institutions exist but yield no meaningful contestation for power (such as Egypt, Singapore, and Uzbekistan in the 1990s). Such regimes have been called “pseudodemocracies,” “virtual democracies,” and “electoral authoritarian” regimes. In our view, they are cases of full-scale authoritarianism. 8 The line between this type of regime and competitive authoritarianism can be hard to draw, and noncompetitive electoral institutions may one day become competitive (as occurred in Mexico). It is essential, however, to distinguish regimes in which democratic institutions offer an important channel through which the opposition may seek power from those regimes in which democratic rules simply serve as to legitimate an existing autocratic leadership.
I think pre-2005, EPRDF showed many of the hallmarks of competitive authoritarianism with a chance of transitioning to a fragile democracy. 2005 started the decaying of the regime. Another important year is 2008. With the three successive laws which have basically closed the narrow democratic space in Ethiopia all issued, the anti-terror law drafted and 99.9% local elections and by-elections EPRDF win declared, the competitive authoritarian regime was well on its path to a full-scale authoritarianism. In this year’s elections, the journey was well and truly complete.
This is not an academic exercise of labeling regime types. If we agree that EPRDF is now a full-scale authoritarian regime, its implication is that it is able to reduce elections and democratic institutions to a “mere façade”. As the electoral route is shut down completely, people who advocate non-violent struggle (a group that includes me) have to come up with a credible strategic plan that doesn’t have electoral competition as its core. Otherwise, we will be old news soon.
Dear AN,
A DECORATED DONKEY IS STILL A DONKY!
Thank you for your Article.
I do not agree with Steven Levitsky’s typology: Competitive and full scale Authoritarianism in the case of Ethiopia. TPLF regime has not been competitive from the very beginning. It is a Maoist totalitarian group with a vanguard party mission. The only classification that fits this group is “ETHNIC LOOTOCRACY” that is ruling by looting.
Good analysis. Any how, don’t be desperate. ‘Fight until a single bullet and single soldier remain’
The absesence of free media is a blow to democracy and freedom in Ethiopia.EPRDF can brain wash the new generation which doesn’t have an alternative and they will use it to defend their power, It’s very difficult to blame new, low profile EPRDF supporters. it is choice between the devil and deep blue sea, losing an income or be a member. once they become a member, they feel they belong to a group and try to show loyality and effort to get to the upper echeolen, they will find comfort and forget about their people. it’s really dangerous.Ethiopian should focus on delivering balanced and informed news. Internet is not a good option, they can filter it and very few can have access, to make things worst, this time around one can have “easy” internet access if s/he is supporter of EPDRF.Radio is the best option, we have to figure out how to minimize jamming efforts.
I was asking my self what went wrong in the recent election? Is the regime is becoming full-scale authoritarianism. In searching the answer when I google I got Levitsky’s research papers. Thank u you bring to the attention of your blog readers. In one of his paper “Democracy and level playing field’ he stressed the importance of level playing field and how it is a defining features of democracy. I agree with his analysis because like other competitive authoritarian regimes EPRDF use all means of legal(laws that favors EPRDF) and illegal techniques to manipulate the whole election process. If there is no level playing field, I don’t see any use for the oppositons to participate in future election. If you know who will win there is no need to play the game.
Abye, a nice piece!! These days, I am of opinion that none of the Western theories really explain or capture the behavior and and actions of the ruling party. The ruling party has been using the idea of free market (which is liberalism) and yet owns land and promote government ownership of huge companies….leaders of the ruling party preach about democracy and human rights but, they justify killings and arresting people who seem oppose them….Democracy is an indicator of free society..however, they are working day and night to create a fear society.
I really appreciate your effort! I expect more from you! Keep it up!
Abiy. Thank you for this essay. This is the kind of talks that we need from now on. We have to stop thinking and have to start acting. And it is people like you who can influence the mass, and make a sound, and well planned action (non-violent, in this case) that RULES OUT ELECTORAL COMPETITION! This might be the start of something big. The point where we will start to walk instead of just talk. As an idea (since you said we should think about it seriously):
- Create guidelines, structure, and relations policy with other struggle (not necessarily non-violent) groups.
- Create an easy communication portal (a website, or a blog) dedicated to the struggle. It is better to base the communication on a portal which can not be hampered by the government (like on big social network sites like facebook, and yahoo).
We can even start this thing from here. Any other people with suggestions please don’t hesitate. Abiy, I need your feed back on what I wrote, if it is not much to ask.
“As the electoral route is shut down completely, people who advocate non-violent struggle (a group that includes me) have to come up with a credible strategic plan that doesn’t have electoral competition as its core. Otherwise, we will be old news soon.”
Excellent. Unless you guys start delivering concrete solutions soon, you will be irrelevant and people will completely return to the good old ways of defending themselves.
Those who advocate for non-violence struggle alone should stop their verbal attacks on those who have taken up arms and focus on delivering solutions themselves.
It is an important and timely article. In his interview with ESAT, Dr. Berhanu was also posing the same question. Twenty years was not a very short period to give peaceful struggle a try but it is very saddening to find ourselves back at the same point where we started it all. Given the prevailing practices in the country by the ruling party, It is really very hard to come up with a convincing non violent struggle strategy. It only takes 24 hrs for our intelligent PM to draft a new law and send any one he wants to jail.
Democracy is important to the degree of its positive effects in education, health, economy, etc. If the economy is getting better, if people are beginning to live better, …., I don’t see the point in worrying 24/7 about democracy. I certainly don’t want to see Ethiopia return to civil war in the name of democracy. Please guys, concentrate on getting more education to be professors, doctors, lawyers, not just stupid politicians or agitators.
@Abiye, your predecessor cited anothere …sky, advocated Ghandism and struck by Guevera at the end – Evolution of the so called Ethiopian opposition.
Yours has some modification though; unlike Dr. Birhanu’s, it rules out election so early. So I expect you to complete the route earlier.
But why do you play into the hands of “that generation” who think they are running out of time and can’t wait for five or ten more years. If there has to be any change of government in this country, it has to be through elections. No other way. No shortcut. Consider this written on the wall.
Meanwhile, since when have you become “the opposition”? I thought you were open to different ideas and would analyse Ethiopian politics professionally. Something is wrong with us. Just when people start to say this may be it, it soon proves to be another disappointment. Sorry!
Like always brilliant.
Thanks Abiye. As the entire nation is held captive, the push for democracy should come from stake holders out side of the country as much as from pro democracy forces in side of the country.
Zenebe,
I do not understand what you want to say. You cannot get rid of the minority TPLF thugs through election. We have seen it 2005, 2010 and also you will see it in 2015, 2020…..You know why, minorities cannot allow any democratic election as it is against their survival. Are you telling us to wait until Zenawi dies?? Do you think Zenawi will be elected in the so called Amhara and Oromo regions given he is the leader of Tigre Liberation Front (TPLF). Where one tribe dominates and manipulates every government institutions for its advantage and runs thousands of “reward prisoner” like Aba Dula, Aba Adissu, Aba…. do not expect to change government by election. In Zenawi’s Ethiopia change of government by election is dead and dead for good! PERIOD!! The search for another alternative (that exclude election) should continue. If armed struggle is the best option, so be it!!
Without going around the bush, the “credible plan” to free our people from the totaliarianism regime is armed struggle. The rest is simply “rasen matalel”. Woyane will not go away with any peaceful struggle. In fact, we have seen it for almost 20 years.
After the massacre of Arebagugu, Adebabay Eyesus, Gambella, Anwar Moseque, Addis Abeba University, Jimma, Harer, Awasa, etc.. and after the looting of Ethiopian resources and destroyed our national army, do you think Woyane will go away peacefully? If Woyane want to go peacefully, do you think he will give our land to Sudan, Arabs, India, China, Egypt and other countires when our people forced to leave to Other countries as a refuges and to be maid servants to Arabs nations? Think again ! Either unite and organize for arme struggle or remain to be slave for this narrow, shallow, racist and ethnic oriented savage regime. There is no middle ground !
am very much happy hearing the advocacy of non-violent struggle from the most moderate person like ABYE.we expect more from u.
I guess everything tends to turn into a religion(dogma)when it reaches Ethiopia. Such seems to be the fate of non-violent struggle (NVS). NVS is only one possible option. Neither Gandhi nor MLK advocated this form of resistance as the only legitimate one for oppressed peoples in ALL situations. Mandela actually followed two tracks (NVS and armed struggle in the form of “spear of the nation”), warning that which one of the two forms of struggle would become dominant depended on the conduct of the Apartheid regime itself.
I just cannot understand who in his/her right mind would say that in todays Ethiopia NVS is the only, or even major avenue for resistance.
Woyanes know what they are doing and what they did. Above all, they know they hate Ethiopia & Ethiopiawenet. All their tactic & strategy is to destroy Ethiopia once and for all. Of course, they pretend as if they defend Ethiopia’s interest. But in reality, based from their practical action,they are for sure anti Ethiopia. But the so called oppostions or some naive Ethiopians still believe change will come “peacefully” by struggling against woyane. But a sworn enemy like woyane who encourage Ethnic division among Ethiopians in the name of “yebeher equlenet” and who gave away our rivers and sea ports to our enemies can’t go away peacefully.
Therefore, organize as one Ethiopia and fight back “by any means necessary” this ruthless, useless, worthless, narrow, ego centric and backward woyane !
what peacefull struggle? Dear bro, you must be kiding! we, Ethiopians, once and for all lost our trust on election. is there any one who can justifie to wait our freedom for the comming 200 years!comon! this is new era!
“As the electoral route is shut down completely, people who advocate non-violent struggle (a group that includes me) have to come up with a credible strategic plan which doesn’t have electoral competition as its core. Otherwise, we will be old news soon”
Of all the things you said, the only thing you didn’t realize is that “You are already old news and you have been like that for a long time. Wake up daddy!
Excellen point Abiy! It is very critical that we accord non-violent struggle in Ethiopia a content different from excercise in meaningless electoral competion every five years. After three elections and nearly 20 years, the result of this approach has ended up being completely zero (and 99.6% for TPLF).
Dear Abiy,
Thanks for sharing your powerful thoughts with us. Although most of us are struggling not to accept pessimistic stance at this historical moment, we really need a credible nonviolent struggle plan. Don’t ask me how given the out come of the May 2010 selection/election. However, I believe, we should sit and thoroughly think to develop a strategy to create critical mass that would not cooperate with oppressors. I believe, nonviolent struggle require a conscious citizenry who can continuously disrupt repressive system. Non-violent struggle involeves “confront[ing] and undermin[ing] oppressive power with forceful action” (Cortright, 2006, p. 121.).
It is irrational to consider non-violent struggle to be the only form of struggle. People want to see solutions. We have to consider any form of struggle necesssary to bring change. As long as it is a continuation of the political struggle, armed struggle is non-violent because it is a means to an end not an end in itself. Thus we should consider all forms of struggle. No body would stop the march of history. What we can do to make the march of history more human and is bound to give less losses to the vat majority of people. Thus the form of struggle should be any that leads us to relieve our people of the oppressive system they are experiencing.
there arent to many options in considering non-violent struggle. one must devise an all inclusive surge to reverse the passivity of the population that started in the womb of the 2005 election. making it believe that it can happen again. not the chaos though but the change that flares in a split of time
Abiy, you always make good point. Keep it up.
I also beleive that we are in a critical time to get in to action. It seems every body from different poiltical and social groups aggree on what is going on in our country. Our country is under the dectator and ethnocentric regieme. We should also aggree that we are accelerating to the very wrong direction. Unless and otherwise we could act on time, we will loose every thing.
My point is as long as we aggree on the current problems, let’s try to devise a kind of system which enable us to bring ” a credible strategic plan for the struggle against the TPLF/EPRDF” so that we can get in to action.
I believe we shouldn’t disburse our effort, we should think criticaly about every move, we should comit ourselves for this historical struggle and we should be hard working. Let’s make this issue our main agenda. Am sure the Ethiopian people can avoid these small group dictators.