Cheer Up, The Rumors of Our Death Are Greatly Exaggerated
I am not naïve enough to suggest that at any given time people will not support authoritarianism if they are provided with non-autoritraian choices. That is so whiggish. And it is only that situation – the situation that people choose Meles Zenawi over more democratic alternatives even though they are fairly informed about the alternatives – that I would describe as a major setback for pro-democracy groups. We are far, far,far away from that whatever Serawit Fikre in his great wisdom says.
Even without the benefits of listening to a Tony Benn speech, I have never given so much of a hearing to the concept of “defeat” in politics. There is no such thing as a permanent political defeat. But there are serious temporary setbacks; the sort that send political ideas packing to a long and nasty existence in the outer margins of politics. Political Doldrum…Yes, that is the word. In conversations I have had with many pro-democracy activists in Ethiopia, I have detected that some believe we have already reached there. Cheer up, I say. The rumors of our death are greatly exaggerated.
Here are some of the situations that are conventionally interpreted as “defeats” for pro-democracy movements in their fights against autocrats.
D1: Collective action problem – Say dwellers of a Kebele are fed up with their Kebele chairperson. Most of them believe that he has to go. Achieving that requires a joint action through co-ordination and co-operation. But here is a rub: the residents may not know that they share this thought; Some of them may want to free ride (they want the back of the person but think that others will do it); Or the Kebele chairman bribes a respected resident to come out and endorse him, leaving the other residents confused and frustrated; or people may agree to act but don’t agree on which tactics to use etc. Collective action problems may arise due to a number of problems relating to co-ordination, defection, disagreement and distribution. In authoritarian systems, the problem of collective action is a serious one as the public sphere is severely constrained.
D2: Problem of alternative – The dictator sucks. “The people want to topple the regime” – to use the slogan of the Arab spring. But they see around and the alternatives also suck. The personal cost of involving in a regime change activism is so high that individuals will hesitate to participate if what the change brings is likely to be more of the same. This is a real problem.
D3: Problem of imagination: Czeslaw Milosz’s masterful work, The Captive Mind, brings to our attention the problem of imagination. When people think that a system that they despise is there to stay and that they fail to imagine an alternative situation, they learn to adapt. The common refrain is: “This is the way it is even though I don’t like it. “ Not all adaptations to injustice are the results of either capitulation or acquiescence.
D4: The Propaganda Effect: I guess I don’t have to explain this to most Ethiopians.
Now I see that our problem is a mixture of all of the above. The good news is that none of them is insurmountable even in a short term. The literature on resisting dictatorships, for example, is awash with a number of suggestions as to how the strategic constellations that lead to collective action problems are solved. With regard to D2, regime change activism increases dramatically when individuals switch from a belief that the alternatives are bad to uncertainty. And the last two problems are solved by effective counter-propaganda.
I am not naïve enough to suggest that at any given time people will not support authoritarianism if they are provided with non-autoritraian choices. That is so whiggish. And it is only that situation – the situation that people choose Meles Zenawi over more democratic alternatives even though they are fairly informed about the alternatives – that I would describe as a major setback for pro-democracy groups. We are far, far,far away from such place whatever Serawit Fekre, in his great wisdom, says.
Forget what the “limatawi artist” Serawit Fikre says!
A very brief but vital intervention …thanks a lot for the timely reflection.
For me D2 – ‘the problem of alternative’ is the core point. When we talk about an ‘alternative’ we need to work on the central elements that would constitute the alternative. At the time being, I don’t think there is an ‘alternative’ in Ethiopian political system. The so called opposition group is totally incapable of producing an ‘alternative’, it is tested and failed a number of times…for me the present opposition structure in Ethiopia has more a tendency of becoming another hurdle than a facilitator for any possible change we may aspire in the country.
Focusing on the ‘alternative’ … I think it’s a matter of a ‘paradigm’ …what kind of Ethiopia are we intending to re-create? I certainly believe that we need a paradigm which re-formulates and answers the unanswered questions that have been lingering for more than EPRDF’s regime … for centuries and beyond. Unless we put the frame of the problems beyond EPRDF’s existence, we may get entrapped in spiral of challenges that we have been fighting against until now. For me, EPRDF did create lots of problems that could have been avoided through his wrong course of ideology and practice …but above all it has exacerbated the problems of the country that were already there and use them as a mechanism of sustaining its power (issues of Land, ‘Ethnicity’, the binary opposition political culture, authoritarian state machine, clientalistic and patrimonial system of governance etc ..) . These issues have compromised the efficiency, effectiveness, accountability, representativeness, responsiveness and reliability of the entire state structure and the media (including the private media).
Hence, the alternative that we need to come up with has to live up to the challenge of re-framing Ethiopia’s opportunities and challenges to the most possible manner by mapping out the mechanism of answering these questions …at all levels; state level, medium level and local level. Such kind of endeavor necessarily needs a way of continuous and constructive dialogue which has both an appreciative as well as critical eye … the extreme position is always a loser and giving a blind eye for something positive is replicating the spirit of EPRDF in the soul and flesh of an ‘opposition’. Moreover, this cannot be achieved with an engagement from far rather located within the society, not through a slogan of pseudo-patriotism on Facebook and other websites rather with an intelligently crafted and diligently implemented strategy of transforming peoples’ consciousness by making them the center of the movement. I feel so embraced to see attempts of overthrowing EPRDF (may be just the sake of only ‘overthrowing’) through a Facebook activity from February to May … knowing the opponent and giving a ‘respect’ to what the other side can do against one’s own action is a preliminary ABC of movements against dictators. The system we are facing didn’t emerge spontaneously … rather deeply rooted …so let’s not try to foolish ourselves to topple it down with short sighted actions …
I wish if I could say more … this is just to share my concern on the point u raised Abiy and to contribute what I think … we’ve got a serious homework to do!!
As long as the hearts and minds of the people are not won, it is far from over. No matter what the government does, the question will pop up the minute the layer that is covering it gets thin enough!
The intolerance and capacity we have to deal with ideas is very limited. For example, if I post any comment that supports the ruling party or tell you that fighting from the jungles of Oxford will not be prodactive. You will not post it.
Maybe you have to learn the ABC of democracy!
Eyob
Thanks dear. You raised a very good points. I loved it man. Please keep up your critics.
For those of you who engaged in dead politics rather than losing any more breath in attempting to over throw a stable government, better be organized. But I am not speculating even then there are no chances for it to happen.
There are certain important merits why I happen to believe so but it is untimely to discus this issue now. In short the so called leaders of the the Ethiopian diaspora community engaged and spending their valuable time in a very lazy way opposing everything any thing in the world Ethiopian government said and did in unintellectually way and more over with out substantiated scrutiny of the reality we know in Ethiopia.
No one claims in their right mind that the Derg was a popular government. yet in spite of tremendous resistence that came fro all segements of society they manage to hang on to power for 17 years. The staying power of TPLF is its brutality and the lack of organized, determined and articulate opposition. Inspite of their various attempt they have failed to get legitimacy from the public. What is going for them is their sheer brutality
No one claims in their right mind that the Derg was a popular government. yet in spite of tremendous resistance that came from all segements of society they manage to hang on to power for 17 years. The staying power of TPLF is its brutality and the lack of organized, determined and articulate opposition. Inspite of their various attempt they have failed to get legitimacy from the public. What is going for them is their sheer brutality
The fact that Ethiopians lack enough or proper food, shelter, and stable, peaceful life is the reason why the minority regime’s position will not be permanent. Unless it is able to provide to the needs of this growing population the TPLF regime will eventually be replaced by another better or worse one. Whatever we think or feel – D1 to D4 – that may only give the regime some time but will not protect it from collapsing.
Let’s remember the fundamental fact that the Ethiopian people today are, hungrier sicker than before and without hope. A regime that doesn’t address these problems or denies their existence is living on borrowed time.
After reading this article I want to comment on D2. In Ethiopian context its difficult to apply the Arab uprising at this level. This is for the reason that the people of Ethiopia has not yet recovered from the previous uprising and its consequence at this stage. However I would add that the time is coming for a change that can bring movement which sets an example for the other African countries, like the case of Eritrea, Zimbabwe, Sudan ..who are in the hands of tyrants and power monger leaders. So lets hope the time is almost there.
Megeerssdo thank you.
it is very difficult to having opposing view in our society. If someone has a different view than the majority in politics, religion, or social issues, that person will be isolated, humiliated, demonized, or at leased laughed at, (For example being gay rights activist, atheist, supporting Eritrea’s independence etc…) The rulers in Ethiopia are no different than any ordinary Ethiopian, who have no tolerance for any opposing individuals or ideas. The opposition camp on the other side is a copy cat as the rulers. Can somebody post any article that supports the ruling party on their website or blog? NO… why? no tolerance for opposing ideas or individuals. We need to change, otherwise the viscous cycle continues. Halie silase, Mengistu, Meles and so on… just the names are different nothing alse.
Maybe it would have helped if we had a tall person in power (both Mengistu and Meles are rather short as was the Emperor) because the psychology of short people is said to be very complex (no offense to my compatriots who may consider themselves to belong to this category). Jokes aside, however, Abiy has yet touched on a number of interesting points. I want to comment on two. First, the effect of propaganda and counter propaganda. For me this is one of the areas where EPRDF has shown how wise and forward looking it had been. Much of the undoing of the dictators in Tunisia and Egypt came through the social media which was able reach majority of the young people eager for change. In Ethiopia EPRDF worked tirelessly to make sure that there will be no meaningful access to modern forms of communication mainly internet and mobile phone which remain under the monopoly of government. EPRDF has learnt the hard way in 2005 the power of informed citizens and it will not make that mistake again if it can avoid it. That takes me to the second point I want to make. Abiy only made a passing reference to the ‘wisdom’ of Serawit Fikre and indeed under normal circumstances such people should not merit even such passing remarks. Unfortunately, however, these are not normal circumstances and the damage that is being done by the so called ልማታዊ አርቲስቶች to the struggle for democracy is very serious and it needs to be exposed. I hope others will be able to write more on EPRDF’s strategy of controlling and using every sector including art to its own advantage. Obviously, they don’t sleep until they know what each of us are thinking.
No need for apology. It is true that short and ‘non-attractive’ people usually suffer from inferiority complex. This inferiority complex spur them to concentrate their energy and focus in something they desire, often making them very successful and powerful, for the better or worse.
My respects for openning up the Ethiopian press even though it was short lived. Fortunately, I’m in US for the moment and thrilled to read your articles and other web sites. This is what we need to do. Liberate oursleves, new thinking-differnt perspectives rather than being “coffee shop opposition groups”. We’ve to be vigiliant and focused, never stop thinking. This is what I tell my friends back at home. By the way I do not expect anyhthing from Serawit who survives through deception.
I hope those who claim to represent this or that group understand the suffering of their people and unite for a common cause to free Ethiopia and Ethiopians from woyane state terrorism. Meles is criminal and “KIMEGNA” and will not give up power alive. It is wise to have a proper politics so as to attract the hodams and the Tigrians who are naively supporting this killer and looter.
Belay
Where do you read that psychology? You simply expose your encyclopedic ignorance? Even such assertion is difficult to make for those of us who are close to the profession?
Man, there is no place to guess in science as used to do it in politics.
Inferiority complex is often subconscious, and is thought to drive afflicted individuals to overcompensate, resulting either in spectacular achievement or extreme schizotypal behavior, or both.
Physical defects – such as disproportional facial and body features, weight, height, strength, speech defects and defective vision cause inferiority complexes.
(Source: Wikipedia)
If the girl you loved (during your highschool or university time) happen to choose another person then it gets worse. Particularly, if that person comes from another ethnic group your hate will develop in to Nazi-like sociopathy. I urge the biography of all our politicians should be scrutinized for such kind of debilitating defects and subsequently receive rehabilitation if they are relatively young (less than 35 years old).
Man, you have to understand that being only short parse is not by any standard considered as a Physical defect. You see, you missed the big point. I agree the above mentioned physical defects can bring sense of inferiority but may not always imply an inferiority complex.
The above assertions is simply a lay man analysis and understanding of inferiority complex. You know what by that you mean the the majority of Chinese and japanse population are short hence suffering from inferiority complex. But rather my believe specially these segments of world population are known for their superiority complex. I mean including the Jews population.
As I said it before there is a place, of course a huge room for political guess but that doesn’t work for natural science. Please write or comment what you know, and only know
I always wonder why other readers engage in a long and boring dialogue (altercation) with you. As I see it now there are some reasons. You either misinterpret (intentionaly) what people write, or you are slow to understand what people say, or you are simply an enthusiastic cadre blindly supporting the regime.Anyway, people couldn’t cut it short or choose to ignore you.
I see that you are trying to make some tricks of diversion just to win the day. I have noticed similar approaches by people like you (perhaps you have the same recipe).
Why you, the enlightened one, explain to us about ‘height in this context’? Refuting also requires proposing an alternative. Physical measures are always described in relation to the concerned community (an average Chinese or Japanese will not be comparing himself with Americans or Europeans but with his fellow community, mainly peers),,,,I never heard of Asians having a ‘superiority complex’….. Is pyschology a natural science??
I don’t know why you brought Jews here???? Are we being led to make a mental analogy??? kkkkkkkk, (enkurarit beren akilalew bila fendita motech??? new yemibalew).
I want to extend my apologies to the readers of this blog for unintentionally giving Teshome a point he can use to divert the topic. I was half joking when I referred to the height of our leaders and in my opinion that’s really not the issue. The main point I wanted to make was actually about the role of the so called ልማታዊ አርቲስቶች and fortunately Mesfin Negash has just posted a fascinating piece on it. Unfortunately, Teshome is already there stifling the discussion and diverting it to unnecessary altercations. While I recognize that Teshome is entitled to his opinions, my suggestion is that we should ignore him and concentrate on the important issues. I am sure the writers like Abiye and Mesfin spend a lot of time and energy composing this messages and it could be frustrating to see that Teshome manages each time to divert us from more constructive dialogue.
So, this is my personal promise to Teshe. From now on I will try and resist the temptation to respond to your provocation and I hope others will do the same.
Hi Folks!
“Addis neger” was my favorite newspaper when u guys were home. Don’t bother guys, forget Meles n all politics, The destiney the planet elites designed for the world (typically for the poor) is almost due. the land grab is just an indication, do ur own home work on this area n make ur research n then u’ll know it is clearly out there. Don’t only consider the Ethiopians, it’s all for the human beings that were mind controlled till now. if any one wants further confirmations of this stuff get at me.
I think most of us have shared vision about our country, but the problem is we all are not doing our home work on how we can realize this dream. The articles by Addis Neger and Eyob are important pieces to craft the road map as a scoiety towards our dream
Whose death? The self proclaimed opposition camp or our society? After travelling through my country for a while, I am having problem to understand all these discussions and debates, for good or worse. I can imagine the dilemma that linger in the minds of our educated people, including this writer. Theorizing, reasoning and calculating in politics are becoming all we are capable of doing. It is very good though but I am afraid we fall short on that scale too.
I want to say, it is one thing to theorize, reason and calculate and it is completely a different thing to push boundaries and effect a change in a society political life, economic front and development of democracy.
For the present regime to fall or change, inflation is enough. The sooner they understand the political cost of sky rocketing food pricing, the less devastating it will be for our country.
After all, some of these current leaders spent all their youth years on a struggle and if it was for this malice to take effect, I feel sorry for them.
C’est la vie