ምን ሆንን? አንድም ማኅበረሰቡ ትልቅ ቀውስ ውስጥ ነው፤ አለዚያም ለወንጀል የተሰጠው የሕግና የፖለቲካ ትርጉም ከመሠረታዊ የሰውል ልጅ መብት፣ ፍላጎትና ባሕርይ ጋራ የሚቃረን ነው። የኢትዮጵያው ቀውስ ምክንያት ወንጀል በዘፈቀደ የሚተረጎም ከመሆኑ የሚመነጭ ነው። ጋዜጠኛ፣ የሰብአዊ መብት ተሟጋች፣ የሕጋዊ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲ አባል፣ የ“ሕገ” ወጥ ፓርቲ አባል፣ ከገዢው ቡድን ጋራ ጥቂት እንኳን የሐሳብ ልዩነት ያለውና ይህ “ወንጀሉ” የተደረሰበት፣ የኢሕአዴግ አባል አልሆንም ያለ፣ አዋጣ የተባለውን ገንዘብ ያላዋጣ፣ ውጭ ሆኖ በተቃውሞ የሚጽፍ ወይም የሚናገር ወዘተ. ሁሉ እንደወንጀል የሚያስከስስ ሆኗል፤ ወይም ብዙዎች እንደዚያ እንዲያምኑ የሚያስገድድ ሁኔታ ተፈጥሯል። ይህ ምን አይነት ፖለቲካ ነው? ምን አይነት ዴሞክራሲ ነው? ምን አይነት አገር ነው? ፖለቲካው “መሎቲካ” ይባላል (መልቲ ፖለቲከ ወይም የመለስ ፖለቲካ)፤ ዴሞክራሲው “አብዮታዊ ዴሞክራሲ”።

I am not naïve enough to suggest that at any given time people will not support authoritarianism if they are provided with non-autoritraian choices. That is so whiggish. And it is only that situation – the situation that people choose Meles Zenawi over more democratic alternatives even though they are fairly informed about the alternatives – that I would describe as a major setback for pro-democracy groups. We are far, far,far away from that whatever Serawit Fikre in his great wisdom says.

In a response to Messay Kebede, a well-known commentator on Ethiopian politics writes this: The fragmented and intriguing characters we have, and the loss of our self-reliance, and weak theoretical background we posses, are some of the factors which block our wishes to develop Ethiopia. Gasp! Myself, I take my cue from Henry Farell as [...]

It is, therefore, reasonable to assume that Melesian autocrats receive correct and complete information about the specific concerns of their subjects only when they get direct information about such from the subjects themselves.

Messay Kebede’s long and thoughtful essay on forming a grand coalition with Meles Zenawi raises an important question about the moral and political dilemmas of making practical compromises with dictators. Conversation between Sancho and Chombe on such matters…

If dictators always express surprise when mass uprisings against their rule take place, it is because they are really surprised. This is all to say that Meles will know that his power is in existential danger when it is too late to save it through any sort of arrangement. So it is fair to say that spilling lots of ink on advising Meles Zenawi to create this or that arrangement we like is a waste of a good deal of time and a good number of brain cells.

የነቱኒዚያም ንቅናቄ በተደራጁ የፖለቲካ ቡድኖች/ፓርቲዎች የተመሩ አይደሉም። በአገራቸው መንግስታት ብቻ ሳይሆን በተቃዋሚዎችም ተስፋ የቆረጡት ዜጎች የለውጥ ፍላጎታቸውን በመግለጽ ለውጡን ለማስጀመር “መደራጀት” አላስፈለጋቸውም። ምክንያቱም የአሮጌውን ስርዓት መጨረሻ ለመጀመር ንቅናቄው የሚፈጥረው ድምጽ በቂ ስለሆነ ነው። የአምባገነኖቹን ግንብ በድምጽ/በጩኸት መናድ ይቻላል። ይህ ድምጽ በመደራጀት ቅርጽ ካልያዘ ግን ሙባረክን በሙባረክ፣ መንግሥቱን በመንግሥቱ፣ መለስን በመለስ የመተካቱ አደጋ ሰፊ ነው። አሁን ሁላችንም በማድነቅ ላይ የምንገኘው የመጨረሻውን መጀመሪያ ነው። የመጀመሪያው መጀመሪያስ ምን ይሆን ይሆን? አሳሳቢ ጥያቄ ነው።…
የ1966ቱን የኢትዮጵያ አብዮት የሚያስታውሰው የነቱኒዚያ ንቅናቄ በአገራችን ሊደገም ይችላል። ልዩ ሁኔታዎች ግን አሉን። ኢሕአዴግ የፈጠረው በብሔር ላይ የተመሠረተ ያለመተማመን ስሜት፣ የበለጠ በሚያስፈራ መልኩ ደግሞ ከመሪ እስከ ተራ ካድሬ ድረስ ሲነዛ የቆየው “የዘር ማጥፋት” መርዘኛ አስተሳሰብ ተግባራዊ መገለጫ ከኖረው ምን ሊሆን እንደሚችል የሚያውቅ የለም። እነዚህ ሁለት ሁኔታዎች በሚፈጥሩት ስጋት መነሻነት የባሰ ችግር ለማስወገድ ሲሉ የግብጹን ሕዝባዊ አመጽ በኢትዮጵያ እንዳይደገም የሚፈልጉ ሰዎች ቢኖር አልገረምም። አናንቀው የሚያልፉት ስጋት አይደለም። ኢሕአዴግ በተለይም ቁልፍ መሪዎቹ ይህንን ስሜት በማፋፋም ሊጠቀሙበት እንደሚችሉ ደግሞ የታወቀ ነው። ስለዚህም በኢትዮጵያ የሚፈጠር መሰል ሕዝባዊ ንቅናቄ ይህንን አደጋ አስወግዶ ተቃውሞውን በተነጣጠረ መልኩ በመንግሥት/አስተዳደሩ ላይ ማስተናገድ ካልቻለ ያልታሰበ መዘዝ ሊያስከትል ይችላል።…
መለስ ከሚወዱትና ከሚወዳቸው ሕዝባቸው ተመሳሳይ የሥራ መልቀቂያ ይጠብቁ ይሆን?

What do Americans diplomats think about Meles Zenawi? This week the American embassy in Addis Ababa briefed government officials about the Wikileaks release(which just came out). According to my sources, these state department documents(a lot of which are classified, secret or nonfor) contain merciless accounts of Meles Zenawi’s behavior and rule and the deteriorating condition of his health. There are at least 1395 cables originating from Addis Ababa in the release. Wikileaks Website is hacked now, but we will get the details of US assessments of Ethiopia when the website is up.

Experts in the manufacturing of ignorance are adept at presenting themselves as serious intellectuals. They learn the language of academic and policy research institutions, write elegantly, feign an interest in discourse and appear in wonkosphere to slug it out with people in the know. With misleading quotations and numbers, they confuse readers. It does not matter if an idea is supported by overwhelming evidence and impeccable logic; these experts have the ability to make it appear as though it were just another idea floating in the galaxy of equally legitimate ideas. How does agnotology play out in the Ethiopian new media ecosystem? I have observed ten methods used by some EPRDF-leaning regular commenters on Addis Neger.

She is unwavering in her commitment to freedom, in her belief in the morality and power of non-violent struggle, in her optimism about the future, in her conviction that the values of the enlightenment are universal. “All the great things are simple,” said Winston Churchill, “and many can be expressed in a single word: freedom, justice, honor, duty, mercy, hope.” Aung San Suu Kyi has been the personification of them all. The great lady studied at St. Huge’s College (Oxford), a few meters from where I live. It seems to me that at least one current member of this esteemed institution is keeping her spirit alive – our own Daniel Bekele.

I have long time ago stopped thinking of the Ethiopian “pro-democracy” movement as a monolithic group or, even more cynically, as a group whose members are mainly pro-democracy. Democracy is just a uniting public slogan. It did not, however, cross my mind that some of them would write publicly(albeit in pseudonyms) and unapologetically about the great things Mao had done. But hey, what do I know about Ethiopian politics?

Mao was a well-read and articulate man. So is Meles Zenawi. It is clear though that they also share a lot more traits including massive, massive, massive incompetence.

ኢሕአዴግ የምርጫ 2002 እፍረቱን ለማረሳሳት (ሊረሳ የሚችል ከሆነ) ብዙ ሙከራዎችን ማድረግ ነበረበት። የመጀመሪያው እና ትልቁም “የእድገት እና የትራንስፎርሜሽን ዕቅድ” ተብሎ የቀረበው ሰነድ ነው። ዕቅዱ በይዘቱም ሆነ በቅርጹ ሰፊ የሐሳብ ልውውጥን የሚጋብዝ ነው። እስካሁን በብዛት ትኩረት የተሰጠው ግን ዕቅዱ ሊሳካ የሚችል በመሆኑና ባለመሆኑ ላይ ነው። ዕቅዱ የሚሳካም ይሁን አለዚያም የማይፈጸም፣ የሰነዱ ፖለቲካዊ ፋይዳ ተገቢውን ትኩረት ያገኘ [...]

Unsurprisingly for a man of such profile, the government in Addis Ababa does not like Plaut. The animosity started when he stated, based on impeccable analysis, that contrary to claims by Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ethio-Eritrea Border Commission’s ruling handed Badme to Eritrea. He was proven right. Since then Plaut’s largely unflattering reports on Ethiopia had left government officials angry, but they could do little to discredit them. The BBC’s apology today provides them with what they have sought for nearly ten years.

EPRDF’s near complete media monopoly and its restrictive social policies have now given the party an epistemic monopoly. If as my colleague says teachers are so crucial in breaking that, the toolbox of pro-democracy activists ought to have instruments of attracting teachers to the fold. I know this is easier said than done. Ethiopian schools at all levels are heavily infiltrated by government operatives. But one fact ought to make activists upbeat: Most of these same operatives are teachers who have joined EPRDF because it is the only available institution through which they can pursue their interest, which in Ethiopia means livelihood.

ምን ሆንን? አንድም ማኅበረሰቡ ትልቅ ቀውስ ውስጥ ነው፤ አለዚያም ለወንጀል የተሰጠው የሕግና የፖለቲካ ትርጉም ከመሠረታዊ የሰውል ልጅ መብት፣ ፍላጎትና ባሕርይ ጋራ የሚቃረን ነው። የኢትዮጵያው ቀውስ ምክንያት ወንጀል በዘፈቀደ የሚተረጎም ከመሆኑ የሚመነጭ ነው። ጋዜጠኛ፣ የሰብአዊ መብት ተሟጋች፣ የሕጋዊ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲ አባል፣ የ“ሕገ” ወጥ ፓርቲ አባል፣ ከገዢው ቡድን ጋራ ጥቂት እንኳን የሐሳብ ልዩነት ያለውና ይህ “ወንጀሉ” የተደረሰበት፣ የኢሕአዴግ አባል አልሆንም ያለ፣ አዋጣ የተባለውን ገንዘብ ያላዋጣ፣ ውጭ ሆኖ በተቃውሞ የሚጽፍ ወይም የሚናገር ወዘተ. ሁሉ እንደወንጀል የሚያስከስስ ሆኗል፤ ወይም ብዙዎች እንደዚያ እንዲያምኑ የሚያስገድድ ሁኔታ ተፈጥሯል። ይህ ምን አይነት ፖለቲካ ነው? ምን አይነት ዴሞክራሲ ነው? ምን አይነት አገር ነው? ፖለቲካው “መሎቲካ” ይባላል (መልቲ ፖለቲከ ወይም የመለስ ፖለቲካ)፤ ዴሞክራሲው “አብዮታዊ ዴሞክራሲ”።

I am not naïve enough to suggest that at any given time people will not support authoritarianism if they are provided with non-autoritraian choices. That is so whiggish. And it is only that situation – the situation that people choose Meles Zenawi over more democratic alternatives even though they are fairly informed about the alternatives – that I would describe as a major setback for pro-democracy groups. We are far, far,far away from that whatever Serawit Fikre in his great wisdom says.

In a response to Messay Kebede, a well-known commentator on Ethiopian politics writes this: The fragmented and intriguing characters we have, and the loss of our self-reliance, and weak theoretical background we posses, are some of the factors which block our wishes to develop Ethiopia. Gasp! Myself, I take my cue from Henry Farell as [...]

It is, therefore, reasonable to assume that Melesian autocrats receive correct and complete information about the specific concerns of their subjects only when they get direct information about such from the subjects themselves.

Messay Kebede’s long and thoughtful essay on forming a grand coalition with Meles Zenawi raises an important question about the moral and political dilemmas of making practical compromises with dictators. Conversation between Sancho and Chombe on such matters…

If dictators always express surprise when mass uprisings against their rule take place, it is because they are really surprised. This is all to say that Meles will know that his power is in existential danger when it is too late to save it through any sort of arrangement. So it is fair to say that spilling lots of ink on advising Meles Zenawi to create this or that arrangement we like is a waste of a good deal of time and a good number of brain cells.

የነቱኒዚያም ንቅናቄ በተደራጁ የፖለቲካ ቡድኖች/ፓርቲዎች የተመሩ አይደሉም። በአገራቸው መንግስታት ብቻ ሳይሆን በተቃዋሚዎችም ተስፋ የቆረጡት ዜጎች የለውጥ ፍላጎታቸውን በመግለጽ ለውጡን ለማስጀመር “መደራጀት” አላስፈለጋቸውም። ምክንያቱም የአሮጌውን ስርዓት መጨረሻ ለመጀመር ንቅናቄው የሚፈጥረው ድምጽ በቂ ስለሆነ ነው። የአምባገነኖቹን ግንብ በድምጽ/በጩኸት መናድ ይቻላል። ይህ ድምጽ በመደራጀት ቅርጽ ካልያዘ ግን ሙባረክን በሙባረክ፣ መንግሥቱን በመንግሥቱ፣ መለስን በመለስ የመተካቱ አደጋ ሰፊ ነው። አሁን ሁላችንም በማድነቅ ላይ የምንገኘው የመጨረሻውን መጀመሪያ ነው። የመጀመሪያው መጀመሪያስ ምን ይሆን ይሆን? አሳሳቢ ጥያቄ ነው።…
የ1966ቱን የኢትዮጵያ አብዮት የሚያስታውሰው የነቱኒዚያ ንቅናቄ በአገራችን ሊደገም ይችላል። ልዩ ሁኔታዎች ግን አሉን። ኢሕአዴግ የፈጠረው በብሔር ላይ የተመሠረተ ያለመተማመን ስሜት፣ የበለጠ በሚያስፈራ መልኩ ደግሞ ከመሪ እስከ ተራ ካድሬ ድረስ ሲነዛ የቆየው “የዘር ማጥፋት” መርዘኛ አስተሳሰብ ተግባራዊ መገለጫ ከኖረው ምን ሊሆን እንደሚችል የሚያውቅ የለም። እነዚህ ሁለት ሁኔታዎች በሚፈጥሩት ስጋት መነሻነት የባሰ ችግር ለማስወገድ ሲሉ የግብጹን ሕዝባዊ አመጽ በኢትዮጵያ እንዳይደገም የሚፈልጉ ሰዎች ቢኖር አልገረምም። አናንቀው የሚያልፉት ስጋት አይደለም። ኢሕአዴግ በተለይም ቁልፍ መሪዎቹ ይህንን ስሜት በማፋፋም ሊጠቀሙበት እንደሚችሉ ደግሞ የታወቀ ነው። ስለዚህም በኢትዮጵያ የሚፈጠር መሰል ሕዝባዊ ንቅናቄ ይህንን አደጋ አስወግዶ ተቃውሞውን በተነጣጠረ መልኩ በመንግሥት/አስተዳደሩ ላይ ማስተናገድ ካልቻለ ያልታሰበ መዘዝ ሊያስከትል ይችላል።…
መለስ ከሚወዱትና ከሚወዳቸው ሕዝባቸው ተመሳሳይ የሥራ መልቀቂያ ይጠብቁ ይሆን?

What do Americans diplomats think about Meles Zenawi? This week the American embassy in Addis Ababa briefed government officials about the Wikileaks release(which just came out). According to my sources, these state department documents(a lot of which are classified, secret or nonfor) contain merciless accounts of Meles Zenawi’s behavior and rule and the deteriorating condition of his health. There are at least 1395 cables originating from Addis Ababa in the release. Wikileaks Website is hacked now, but we will get the details of US assessments of Ethiopia when the website is up.

Experts in the manufacturing of ignorance are adept at presenting themselves as serious intellectuals. They learn the language of academic and policy research institutions, write elegantly, feign an interest in discourse and appear in wonkosphere to slug it out with people in the know. With misleading quotations and numbers, they confuse readers. It does not matter if an idea is supported by overwhelming evidence and impeccable logic; these experts have the ability to make it appear as though it were just another idea floating in the galaxy of equally legitimate ideas. How does agnotology play out in the Ethiopian new media ecosystem? I have observed ten methods used by some EPRDF-leaning regular commenters on Addis Neger.

She is unwavering in her commitment to freedom, in her belief in the morality and power of non-violent struggle, in her optimism about the future, in her conviction that the values of the enlightenment are universal. “All the great things are simple,” said Winston Churchill, “and many can be expressed in a single word: freedom, justice, honor, duty, mercy, hope.” Aung San Suu Kyi has been the personification of them all. The great lady studied at St. Huge’s College (Oxford), a few meters from where I live. It seems to me that at least one current member of this esteemed institution is keeping her spirit alive – our own Daniel Bekele.

I have long time ago stopped thinking of the Ethiopian “pro-democracy” movement as a monolithic group or, even more cynically, as a group whose members are mainly pro-democracy. Democracy is just a uniting public slogan. It did not, however, cross my mind that some of them would write publicly(albeit in pseudonyms) and unapologetically about the great things Mao had done. But hey, what do I know about Ethiopian politics?

Mao was a well-read and articulate man. So is Meles Zenawi. It is clear though that they also share a lot more traits including massive, massive, massive incompetence.

ኢሕአዴግ የምርጫ 2002 እፍረቱን ለማረሳሳት (ሊረሳ የሚችል ከሆነ) ብዙ ሙከራዎችን ማድረግ ነበረበት። የመጀመሪያው እና ትልቁም “የእድገት እና የትራንስፎርሜሽን ዕቅድ” ተብሎ የቀረበው ሰነድ ነው። ዕቅዱ በይዘቱም ሆነ በቅርጹ ሰፊ የሐሳብ ልውውጥን የሚጋብዝ ነው። እስካሁን በብዛት ትኩረት የተሰጠው ግን ዕቅዱ ሊሳካ የሚችል በመሆኑና ባለመሆኑ ላይ ነው። ዕቅዱ የሚሳካም ይሁን አለዚያም የማይፈጸም፣ የሰነዱ ፖለቲካዊ ፋይዳ ተገቢውን ትኩረት ያገኘ [...]

Unsurprisingly for a man of such profile, the government in Addis Ababa does not like Plaut. The animosity started when he stated, based on impeccable analysis, that contrary to claims by Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ethio-Eritrea Border Commission’s ruling handed Badme to Eritrea. He was proven right. Since then Plaut’s largely unflattering reports on Ethiopia had left government officials angry, but they could do little to discredit them. The BBC’s apology today provides them with what they have sought for nearly ten years.

EPRDF’s near complete media monopoly and its restrictive social policies have now given the party an epistemic monopoly. If as my colleague says teachers are so crucial in breaking that, the toolbox of pro-democracy activists ought to have instruments of attracting teachers to the fold. I know this is easier said than done. Ethiopian schools at all levels are heavily infiltrated by government operatives. But one fact ought to make activists upbeat: Most of these same operatives are teachers who have joined EPRDF because it is the only available institution through which they can pursue their interest, which in Ethiopia means livelihood.